Viewing archive of Monday, 19 May 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 May 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 139 Issued at 2200Z on 19 May 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. The most noteworthy activity this period was a long duration B-class flare, associated with a filament eruption and CME from near N30E30 at 19/0930Z. The CME does not appear to have an earthward trajectory. Region 362 (S11E23) continues to exhibit some complexity, but no new growth was noted and the region was stable. New Region 364 (S26W29) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Isolated C-class flares are possible from Region 362. New Regions rotating on the SE limb may increase activity levels late in the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with occasional active periods over the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 20 May to 22 May
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 May 115
  Predicted   20 May-22 May  120/130/135
  90 Day Mean        19 May 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 May  007/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 May  010/011
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 May-22 May  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 May to 22 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%35%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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