Viewing archive of Sunday, 18 May 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 May 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 138 Issued at 2200Z on 18 May 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 357 (S16W20) produced
the only C-class flare of the period - a C1 flare at 18/1057Z. This
region has shown little change over the past 24 hours, maintaining a
simple beta configuration. Region 362 (S11E37) appeared to develop
some complexity early in the period, but has since stabilized. New
Region 363 (S08W04) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. Regions 357 and 362 have potential for low C-class
activity. Activity is expected to increase later in the week with
the return of a zone of active longitudes that contained old Regions
345 (S17, L=167), 348 (S35, L=149), and 349 (S14, L=153).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Slightly enhanced solar
wind conditions occurred late in the period and produced the
unsettled conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at
geosynchronous orbit reached very high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active. Increased solar wind speed,
associated with a favorably positioned coronal hole will cause
occasional disturbed periods through day two.
III. Event Probabilities 19 May to 21 May
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 May 109 Predicted 19 May-21 May 115/120/130 90 Day Mean 18 May 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 May 006/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 May 007/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 May-21 May 015/015-012/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 May to 21 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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