Viewing archive of Sunday, 18 May 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 May 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 138 Issued at 2200Z on 18 May 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 357 (S16W20) produced the only C-class flare of the period - a C1 flare at 18/1057Z. This region has shown little change over the past 24 hours, maintaining a simple beta configuration. Region 362 (S11E37) appeared to develop some complexity early in the period, but has since stabilized. New Region 363 (S08W04) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels. Regions 357 and 362 have potential for low C-class activity. Activity is expected to increase later in the week with the return of a zone of active longitudes that contained old Regions 345 (S17, L=167), 348 (S35, L=149), and 349 (S14, L=153).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Slightly enhanced solar wind conditions occurred late in the period and produced the unsettled conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached very high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to active. Increased solar wind speed, associated with a favorably positioned coronal hole will cause occasional disturbed periods through day two.
III. Event Probabilities 19 May to 21 May
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 May 109
  Predicted   19 May-21 May  115/120/130
  90 Day Mean        18 May 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 May  006/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 May  007/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 May-21 May  015/015-012/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 May to 21 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%20%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%35%30%
Minor storm20%15%15%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%

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