Viewing archive of Saturday, 17 May 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 May 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 137 Issued at 2200Z on 17 May 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low, with possible increase in activity over the next few days due to returning regions emerging from the east limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled on day one, with active conditions possible on days two and three of the period due to a coronal hole passing into geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 18 May to 20 May
Class M05%05%10%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 May 102
  Predicted   18 May-20 May  110/120/125
  90 Day Mean        17 May 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 May  009/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 May  010/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 May-20 May  010/012-015/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 May to 20 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm10%15%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm15%20%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
VII. Comments The GOES 10 energetic proton detectors are showing intermittent, high noise levels in the higher energy proton channels (greater than about 80 MeV). This problem was first noticed in data taken April 26, 2003. To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. As of 1500 UT on May 15, GOES-8 became the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will be the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray sensor, and energetic particle sensor. This short-term solution (approximately 2 - 3 months) will be in place until we define and implement a permanent fix. A more detailed explanation can be found at:

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