Viewing archive of Sunday, 4 May 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 May 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 124 Issued at 2200Z on 04 May 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 349 (S15W47)
produced a long duration C1 event at 04/0301 UTC which was visible
in the GOES Solar x-ray imagery. This region continues to fluctuate
daily in white light area and sunspot count, but retains its
beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region 348 (S35W44) has grown in
area and sunspot count since yesterday and also developed a
beta-gamma magnetic configuration. New Regions 353 (S16E33) and 354
(N19E58) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 348 and 349 have the potential to produce a low
level M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high
levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled conditions for 05 May.
Unsettled to active conditions are possible for 06 May - 07 May as a
result of a coronal hole high speed flow.
III. Event Probabilities 05 May to 07 May
| Class M | 60% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 May 142 Predicted 05 May-07 May 135/130/125 90 Day Mean 04 May 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 May 007/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 May 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 May-07 May 015/015-015/020-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 May to 07 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
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