Viewing archive of Sunday, 4 May 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 May 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 124 Issued at 2200Z on 04 May 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Region 349 (S15W47) produced a long duration C1 event at 04/0301 UTC which was visible in the GOES Solar x-ray imagery. This region continues to fluctuate daily in white light area and sunspot count, but retains its beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region 348 (S35W44) has grown in area and sunspot count since yesterday and also developed a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. New Regions 353 (S16E33) and 354 (N19E58) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 348 and 349 have the potential to produce a low level M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled conditions for 05 May. Unsettled to active conditions are possible for 06 May - 07 May as a result of a coronal hole high speed flow.
III. Event Probabilities 05 May to 07 May
Class M60%50%50%
Class X10%05%05%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 May 142
  Predicted   05 May-07 May  135/130/125
  90 Day Mean        04 May 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 May  007/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 May  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 May-07 May  015/015-015/020-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 May to 07 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm20%25%25%
Major-severe storm05%10%10%

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