Viewing archive of Monday, 28 April 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Apr 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 118 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Apr 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to low levels today. Region 337 (S14W53) produced the largest flare of the period, a C4.4/Sf event occurring at 28/0436Z. There was little change to the penumbral coverage and magnetic complexity noted during the period. Region 338 (N18W98) has rotated beyond the west limb, although it did manage to trigger several lesser C-class flares throughout the day. Region 344 (N16W14) produced the second largest flare of the interval, a C3.3/Sf occurring at 28/1815Z. This region maintains a very weak delta complex and magnetically appears to be showing slight decay. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. A very weak signature from the NASA/ACE data indicate a transient may have passed around 28/1200Z although the elevated geomagnetic conditions are believed to be from a recurrent coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit have again reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active for days one and two of the period as the current coronal hole begins to wane. Minor storm conditions may occur on day three due to the onset of another favorably positioned recurrent coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Apr to 01 May
Class M40%35%35%
Class X05%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Apr 152
  Predicted   29 Apr-01 May  150/150/145
  90 Day Mean        28 Apr 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Apr  011/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Apr  012/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Apr-01 May  012/015-012/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Apr to 01 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%35%
Minor storm10%10%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%45%
Minor storm20%20%30%
Major-severe storm10%10%15%

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