Viewing archive of Tuesday, 22 April 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Apr 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 112 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Apr 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 338 (N18W20) continued to develop in both size and magnetic complexity. It was responsible for most of the C-class activity this period, including a C4/Sf flare at 22/2011Z. There were some indications that a weak delta configuration was developing in this region. A Type II (960 km/s) radio sweep was detected at 22/0716Z, associated with a CME off the NE limb. A CME was also detected earlier in the period, associated with a B-class flare in Region 336 (N14E10). The largest region on the disk - Region 337 (S14E29), exhibited some decay and simplification over the past 24 hours. These CMEs do not appear to be Earthward directed. Minor C-class activity was observed in Regions 337 (S14E29), and 339 (N16W71). New Region 342 (N18W07) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. There is a chance for a low level M-class flare from Region 337 or Region 338.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. A high speed solar wind stream that began early on 21 April continues. Solar wind speeds exceeded 600 km/s early in the period, but gradually declined to below 550 km/s by the end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. The most disturbed periods are expected late on day one through day two due to the anticipated arrival of a CME associated with the M2/1n flare on 21/1307Z. A return to predominantly unsettled conditions is expected on day three with occasional active periods possible.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Apr to 25 Apr
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Apr 132
  Predicted   23 Apr-25 Apr  140/145/145
  90 Day Mean        22 Apr 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Apr  012/021
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Apr  015/022
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr  020/030-020/025-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Apr to 25 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%40%30%
Minor storm20%20%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%50%40%
Minor storm30%30%15%
Major-severe storm15%15%05%

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