Viewing archive of Monday, 21 April 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Apr 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 111 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Apr 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region 338 (N18W05) produced an M2/1n flare at 21/1307Z. Considerable radio emissions were associated with this flare, including a Type II (1200 km/s) and Type IV sweep, and a 300 sfu tenflare. A partial halo CME was also noted from LASCO imagery. This beta-gamma region is in a slow growth phase with a moderate increase in the number of sunspots visible over the past 24 hours. Region 337 (S13E43) is the largest and most complex region on the visible disk, and now contains a weak delta configuration in the 350 millionths of white light areal coverage. Only minor C-class flares have been observed so far from this region. Minor C-class activity was also observed in Region 339 (N16W58). New Regions 340 (S04E55), and 341 (S10E74), were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. An isolated M-class flare is possible from Regions 337 or 338.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly unsettled to active levels with isolated high latitude minor storm periods. A high speed solar wind stream, with winds ranging from 520 - 600 km/s, continues to buffet the geomagnetic field. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels through day one. Minor storm periods are possible on days two and three with the anticipated arrival of the CME from today's M2 flare.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Apr to 24 Apr
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Apr 126
  Predicted   22 Apr-24 Apr  135/140/145
  90 Day Mean        21 Apr 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Apr  012/016
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Apr  015/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Apr-24 Apr  012/015-020/030-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Apr to 24 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%40%40%
Minor storm10%20%20%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%50%50%
Minor storm15%30%30%
Major-severe storm05%15%15%

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