Viewing archive of Tuesday, 25 March 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Mar 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 084 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Mar 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to very low levels. The largest flare of the period was a B9.1/Sf from Region 321 (N05E65) that occurred at 25/1636Z. This region underwent penumbral growth during the period. Region 319 (N13E27) experienced slight development during the period and produced a lone B-class flare early in the day. A small 6 degree disappearing filament was observed between 25/1700 and 1800Z which was centered at N38W10. Regions 322 (N19W72) and 323 (S07E55) were newly assigned today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. There is a slight chance of an isolated M-class event from region 321.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet levels until the onset of a favorably positioned recurrent coronal hole. The coronal hole is expected to become geoeffective early on the first day of the forecast period. Predominantly active conditions are anticipated and minor storm to major storm periods are possible through the first two days of the interval. Unsettled to active conditions are expected by day three.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Mar to 28 Mar
Class M 15%15%15%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Mar 109
  Predicted    26 Mar-28 Mar  115/125/135
  90 Day Mean        25 Mar 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Mar  005/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Mar  005/008
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 26 Mar-28 Mar  020/020-015/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Mar to 28 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%25%20%
Minor storm 20%15%10%
Major-severe storm 10%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%30%30%
Minor storm 25%20%20%
Major-severe storm 15%10%10%

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