Viewing archive of Saturday, 22 March 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Mar 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 081 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Mar 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. There were several C-class and numerous B-class flares originating from old Region 314 (S16, L=062) which has rotated off the west limb. The largest flare from this region was a C2.3 x-ray flare that occurred at 22/0055Z. The remainder of disk was quiescent throughout the interval. Region 318 (S16E74), a four spot beta group, has begun to rotate into view from the east limb and was newly assigned today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active conditions. The solar wind speed has shown a slow, yet steady decrease during the interval as a favorably positioned coronal hole enters into its waning stage. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit have again exceeded high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled conditions throughout the period. Active conditions and isolated minor storm periods are possible late on day three due to a recurrent coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Mar to 25 Mar
Class M05%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Mar 089
  Predicted   23 Mar-25 Mar  090/090/095
  90 Day Mean        22 Mar 133
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Mar  019/029
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Mar  012/016
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar  010/012-010/012-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Mar to 25 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm10%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%

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