Viewing archive of Wednesday, 19 March 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Mar 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 078 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Mar 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 314 (S13W66)
produced several flares over the past 24 hours, the largest being an
M3/1N at 19/0953 UTC. The delta configuration seems to remain
although the region's sunspots are decaying. Other disk regions were
relatively quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Region 314 may produce another major flare as it
decays.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. The coronal hole
high-speed stream appears to be waning. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels on 20 March in
response to a CME associated with the 18 March X1/1b flare. Quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected by the end of the three-day
forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Mar to 22 Mar
| Class M | 75% | 50% | 30% |
| Class X | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Mar 108 Predicted 20 Mar-22 Mar 105/100/100 90 Day Mean 19 Mar 138
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Mar 016/026 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Mar 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Mar-22 Mar 020/025-015/020-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Mar to 22 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 60% | 50% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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