Viewing archive of Tuesday, 11 March 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Mar 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 070 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Mar 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity remained at low levels today. The
largest event of the period was a C1.2/Sf flare that occurred at
11/1230Z which originated from region 306 (N05E21). This region has
changed little over the past 24 hours. Region 296 (N12W71) has
shown decay during the period and has lost the gamma portion of its
magnetic classification today. Region 304 (S11W69) has shown a
slight increase in penumbral coverage during the period. No new
regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.
Isolated active periods were observed at both middle and high
latitudes during the interval. The greater than 2 MeV electron
fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels for day
one of the forecast period. By day two, active conditions with
isolated minor storm periods may exist due to a co-rotating
interaction region preceding a recurrent coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Mar to 14 Mar
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Mar 142 Predicted 12 Mar-14 Mar 140/135/130 90 Day Mean 11 Mar 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Mar 010/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Mar 008/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar 008/012-012/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Mar to 14 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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