Viewing archive of Tuesday, 11 March 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Mar 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 070 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Mar 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity remained at low levels today. The largest event of the period was a C1.2/Sf flare that occurred at 11/1230Z which originated from region 306 (N05E21). This region has changed little over the past 24 hours. Region 296 (N12W71) has shown decay during the period and has lost the gamma portion of its magnetic classification today. Region 304 (S11W69) has shown a slight increase in penumbral coverage during the period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active periods were observed at both middle and high latitudes during the interval. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels for day one of the forecast period. By day two, active conditions with isolated minor storm periods may exist due to a co-rotating interaction region preceding a recurrent coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Mar to 14 Mar
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Mar 142
  Predicted   12 Mar-14 Mar  140/135/130
  90 Day Mean        11 Mar 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Mar  010/016
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Mar  008/013
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar  008/012-012/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Mar to 14 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%25%25%
Minor storm01%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%35%35%
Minor storm10%20%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%

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