Viewing archive of Thursday, 6 March 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Mar 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 065 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Mar 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity continues at very low levels. Region 296
(N12W05) remains the largest and most complex group on the visible
disk, but has shown slow decay and very little activity over the
past 48 hours. Some developing complexity and considerable plage
fluctuations were noted in Region 301 (N22E08), but the region is
still quite small. No other significant changes were noted.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Though unusually quiet for its size and complexity, Region 296 has
potential for a C-class flare and a slight chance for an M-class
event. Minor C-class flares are also possible in Region 301.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active with isolated, high
latitude minor storm periods. This disturbance is due to a high
speed coronal hole stream, with solar wind speed averaging 500 to
550 km/s over the past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to begin the period at unsettled to active levels, but
should gradually decline to mostly quiet to unsettled levels by day
two. Isolated active periods are likely on days two and three.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Mar to 09 Mar
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Mar 150 Predicted 07 Mar-09 Mar 145/145/145 90 Day Mean 06 Mar 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Mar 012/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Mar 015/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Mar-09 Mar 010/015-010/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Mar to 09 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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