Viewing archive of Sunday, 2 March 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Mar 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 061 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Mar 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. A small number of C-class flares did occur with the largest a C1.3 at 1021 UTC from Region 292 (S09W78). SXI imagery from GOES-12 shows two new regions behind the East limb at approximately N15 and S20.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels for the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next day, increasing to unsettled to active levels on days two and three.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Mar to 05 Mar
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Mar 147
  Predicted   03 Mar-05 Mar  150/150/155
  90 Day Mean        02 Mar 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Mar  009/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Mar  012/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Mar-05 Mar  012/015-015/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Mar to 05 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%30%35%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%45%40%
Minor storm20%30%30%
Major-severe storm05%10%10%

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