Viewing archive of Sunday, 2 March 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Mar 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 061 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Mar 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. A small number of
C-class flares did occur with the largest a C1.3 at 1021 UTC from
Region 292 (S09W78). SXI imagery from GOES-12 shows two new regions
behind the East limb at approximately N15 and S20.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels for the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next day,
increasing to unsettled to active levels on days two and three.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Mar to 05 Mar
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Mar 147 Predicted 03 Mar-05 Mar 150/150/155 90 Day Mean 02 Mar 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Mar 009/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Mar 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Mar-05 Mar 012/015-015/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Mar to 05 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 45% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
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