Viewing archive of Saturday, 15 February 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Feb 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 046 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity remained at low levels. The largest flare during the period was a long duration C4.5 event from Region 276 (S14 L-160) that occurred at 15/0810Z. LASCO/C-2 imagery (first seen at 15/0930Z) depicted a resulting CME that may have a weak Earth-directed component. Another CME was observed by LASCO earlier in the period (first seen at 14/2206Z) that appears to have been the result of a filament eruption in the northeastern quadrant of the solar disk (centered at approximately N45E30). This CME may also be Earth-directed. There was further CME activity seen in LASCO imagery which appears to have been from back-sided source regions. With exception to the aforementioned, there were only a few minor B and Cl-class flares observed from the active solar regions during the interval. New Region 288 (N12E72) was newly assigned today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly unsettled to active levels. An isolated period of quiet conditions were seen at mid-latitudes between 14/2100 and 2400Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels. Minor storm conditions are possible throughout the period due to the effects of a large recurrent coronal hole. Days two and three may experience further enhancements due to the CME activity seen today (IA)
III. Event Probabilities 16 Feb to 18 Feb
Class M 15%10%05%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Feb 124
  Predicted    16 Feb-18 Feb  125/120/120
  90 Day Mean        15 Feb 148
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb  016/019
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Feb  015/020
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb  012/020-015/020-018/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb to 18 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%40%45%
Minor storm 15%25%25%
Major-severe storm 05%10%15%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%30%
Minor storm 30%30%40%
Major-severe storm 15%15%25%

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