Viewing archive of Friday, 14 February 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Feb 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 045 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity increased to moderate levels due to an impulsive M1.2/Sf flare that occurred at 14/0918Z from Region 284 (N12W95) which was spotless upon exiting the disk. Several lesser C-class flares also occurred from this region throughout the period. Region 282 (N10W58) has shown some growth in white-light spot coverage and magnetic complexity during the interval, although it produced only minor flare activity. Regions 276 (S14W90) and 280 (S04W81) were responsible for the remainder of the minor flare activity seen today. New Region 287 (N12W50) was newly numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Early in the period the solar wind speed began a gradual increase to a current 500 km/s rise, this, along with frequent periods of southward Bz allowed for the active conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels. Minor storm conditions are possible, especially at high latitudes, beginning on day one due to a large recurrent coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Feb to 17 Feb
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Feb 131
  Predicted   15 Feb-17 Feb  130/125/125
  90 Day Mean        14 Feb 149
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb  003/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Feb  015/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb  012/015-012/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb to 17 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm15%15%25%
Major-severe storm05%05%10%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm15%15%15%

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