Viewing archive of Thursday, 13 February 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Feb 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 044 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 282 (N10W45) produced two low level C-class flares today, the largest was a C2.3 flare (location correlated using SXI imagery) that occurred at 12/2112Z. There was very little change seen in white-light coverage or magnetic complexity during the interval, region remains a simple beta group. Region 280 (S06W68) produced a B8.4/Sf flare at 13/0129Z and remains a very simple beta magnetic complex. A filament eruption in the southeastern quadrant of the disk (began at approximately 12/1330Z), seen in SOHO/EIT and SXI imagery, produced a narrow CME (LASCO imagery) that doesn't appear as though it will become geoeffective. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Day two may experience isolated active to minor storm conditions as the leading edge of the recurrent favorably positioned coronal hole becomes geoeffective. Day three should be at predominantly unsettled to active levels with minor storm conditions possible.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Feb to 16 Feb
Class M 15%15%15%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Feb 131
  Predicted    14 Feb-16 Feb  130/130/125
  90 Day Mean        13 Feb 149
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb  008/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Feb  006/008
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb  008/012-010/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb to 16 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%20%30%
Minor storm 01%10%15%
Major-severe storm 01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%25%35%
Minor storm 05%10%20%
Major-severe storm 01%05%10%

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