Viewing archive of Wednesday, 12 February 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Feb 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 043 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity remained at low levels. The most
significant activity during the period was a C8.7/1f that occurred
at 12/0151Z from Region 280 (S06W55). A Type II radio sweep was
associated with this event that had an estimated shock velocity of
632 km/s. LASCO imagery depicted a narrow CME and further analysis
indicates there is little chance of it becoming geoeffective.
Region 282 (N10W32) contributed to the day's activity with lesser B
and C-class flare activity. Few changes were observed in the
remaining small and magnetically simple regions. No new regions
were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. A single
isolated active period was observed at higher latitudes between
12/1500 to 1800Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Day three may experience
isolated active periods due to an anticipated favorably positioned
transequatorial coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Feb to 15 Feb
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Feb 132 Predicted 13 Feb-15 Feb 130/130/130 90 Day Mean 12 Feb 150
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb 007/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Feb 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb 006/012-006/012-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb to 15 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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