Viewing archive of Wednesday, 12 February 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Feb 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 043 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity remained at low levels. The most significant activity during the period was a C8.7/1f that occurred at 12/0151Z from Region 280 (S06W55). A Type II radio sweep was associated with this event that had an estimated shock velocity of 632 km/s. LASCO imagery depicted a narrow CME and further analysis indicates there is little chance of it becoming geoeffective. Region 282 (N10W32) contributed to the day's activity with lesser B and C-class flare activity. Few changes were observed in the remaining small and magnetically simple regions. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. A single isolated active period was observed at higher latitudes between 12/1500 to 1800Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Day three may experience isolated active periods due to an anticipated favorably positioned transequatorial coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Feb to 15 Feb
Class M 15%15%15%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Feb 132
  Predicted    13 Feb-15 Feb  130/130/130
  90 Day Mean        12 Feb 150
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb  007/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Feb  008/010
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb  006/012-006/012-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb to 15 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm 01%01%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%30%
Minor storm 05%05%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%05%

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