Viewing archive of Sunday, 26 January 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jan 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 026 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jan 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 268 (N15W42)
produced a C2.6 flare at 26/1040 UTC. Region 268 has shown some
decay in area coverage. Region 266 (S22W26) has grown in area
coverage and maintains its beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Some
weak polarity mixing was evident near the intermediate spots of
Region 266. Three new regions were numbered today: Region 270
(S04W36), Region 271 (S06W21), and Region 272 (S05E26).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
The majority of activity is expected to come from Region 266 and
Region 268.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Elevated solar
wind speed near 700 km/s combined with a Bz near negative 5 nT
resulted in active conditions.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Diminishing effects
from the coronal hole are expected to produce only unsettled
conditions.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jan to 29 Jan
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jan 125 Predicted 27 Jan-29 Jan 125/125/130 90 Day Mean 26 Jan 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jan 019/028 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jan 018/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jan-29 Jan 015/015-010/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jan to 29 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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