Viewing archive of Saturday, 18 January 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jan 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 018 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 259 (N10E12) produced today's only C-class flare, a C1 at 17/2334 UTC. The remainder of the interval was marked by a very little activity. All of the sunspot groups currently on the disk are quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for the next three days
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. There was one active period from 1200-1500 UTC. There does appear to be some low level wave activity in the solar wind data (Bz is showing fluctuations from -10 nT to +10 nT with a period slightly longer than one hour). This may be related to coronal hole effects from the southern polar extension whose leading edge is at about W40.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly unsettled for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jan to 21 Jan
Class M 15%15%15%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Jan 137
  Predicted    19 Jan-21 Jan  135/125/125
  90 Day Mean        18 Jan 162
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan  004/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Jan  012/013
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan  010/012-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan to 21 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm 10%10%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm 10%10%10%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%

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