Viewing archive of Thursday, 16 January 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jan 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 016 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. An optically uncorrelated long duration C2 event was observed at 16/1218 UTC. Available image data does not reflect an exact location for the event at this time.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low. There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event during the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jan to 19 Jan
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Jan 145
  Predicted   17 Jan-19 Jan  140/135/135
  90 Day Mean        16 Jan 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan  007/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Jan  006/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan  008/010-010/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan to 19 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%25%25%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

<< Go to daily overview page

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

64%

Space weather facts

Last X-flare2017/09/10X8.2
Last M-flare2020/05/29M1.1
Last geomagnetic storm2020/04/20Kp5 (G1)
Spotless days
Last 365 days308 days
2020147 days (77%)
Last spotless day2020/07/09

This day in history*

Solar flares
12000X1.0
22002M5.8
32000M4.2
42000M1.1
52002M1.0
ApG
1200352G2
2200034G1
3201523G1
4200721G1
5200521G1
*since 1994

Social networks