Viewing archive of Thursday, 16 January 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jan 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 016 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. An optically uncorrelated long duration C2 event was observed at 16/1218 UTC. Available image data does not reflect an exact location for the event at this time.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low. There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event during the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jan to 19 Jan
Class M 30%30%30%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Jan 145
  Predicted    17 Jan-19 Jan  140/135/135
  90 Day Mean        16 Jan 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan  007/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Jan  006/010
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan  008/010-010/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan to 19 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%25%25%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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