Viewing archive of Wednesday, 25 December 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Dec 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 359 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Dec 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. The largest event
was an optically uncorrelated C4.8 flare at 25/0546 UTC. Two of the
most active regions over the past week, Region 224 (S14W92) and
Region 226 (S28, L=122), rotated beyond the west limb today. Region
230 (S08W50) continues to decay and has lost its trailing spots.
The region is now a simple Hax spot group with an alpha magnetic
configuration. New Region 235 (N13E28) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly at unsettled levels. One
period of isolated active conditions occurred. Solar wind velocity
gradually decreased throughout the day from 540 km/s to 440 km/s and
Bz was slightly negative for most of the day. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geo-synchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active. A large positive polarity coronal
hole will rotate into a geo-effective position on day two of the
period. Unsettled to active conditions are expected for day two and
day three.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Dec to 28 Dec
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Dec 132 Predicted 26 Dec-28 Dec 130/125/120 90 Day Mean 25 Dec 167
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Dec 014/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Dec 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Dec-28 Dec 010/015-015/018-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Dec to 28 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
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