Viewing archive of Tuesday, 24 December 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Dec 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 358 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Dec 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 224 (S14W81) produced two C5 flares. The first one at 24/0527 UTC and the second one at 24/1451 UTC. Region 224 has stopped its growth phase of the last few days. Region 226 (S28W89) continues to gradually decay and has simplied to a beta magnetic configuration. New Region 234 (N18E73) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 230 has the potential for M-class activity. Regions 224 and 226 also have M-class potential as they rotate beyond the west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. A weak transient was observed by the NASA/ACE spacecraft at approximately 24/1300 UTC. Solar wind speed increased to near 575 km/s and Bz was slightly negative. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geo-synchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance of isolated active conditions. Isolated active conditions may continue into day one of the forecast period. By late on day one and through day two activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Coronal hole effects are expected to commence on day three of the period with isolated active conditions possible.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Dec to 27 Dec
Class M40%30%25%
Class X05%05%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Dec 147
  Predicted   25 Dec-27 Dec  145/140/140
  90 Day Mean        24 Dec 167
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Dec  012/026
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Dec  015/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Dec-27 Dec  012/010-008/012-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Dec to 27 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%20%
Minor storm05%01%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%25%
Minor storm05%05%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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