Viewing archive of Tuesday, 3 December 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Dec 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 337 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Dec 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 208 (N11E22) produced the largest event of the period, an impulsive C8/Sn flare at 03/0818 UTC. This region has declined in penumbral area but retains moderate magnetic complexity. Region 207 (S19W06) produced a few B-class events over the course of the day. New Region 213 (N15E79) rotated into view and was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low, with a chance for isolated moderate flare activity during the next three days. Region 208 is a possible source of low level M-class flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again for the fifth consecutive day.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled for the forecast period. Greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit may persist at high levels for the next one to two days.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Dec to 06 Dec
Class M30%30%35%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Dec 146
  Predicted   04 Dec-06 Dec  150/165/170
  90 Day Mean        03 Dec 169
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Dec  009/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Dec  010/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec  010/012-005/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Dec to 06 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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