Viewing archive of Tuesday, 12 November 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Nov 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. A long duration
C7/0f event was observed at 11/2255 UTC from Region 191 (S18E25).
An optically uncorrelated Type II radio sweep was observed at
12/0356 UTC. The LASCO/SOHO imagery indicates this activity may
have originated from Region 188 (N10W61). Region 180 (S11W82)
produced an M2/1n event at 12/1856 UTC. A new region was numbered
today as Region 193 (S02E21).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 180 and 191 have potential to produce an
M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been predominately quiet to unsettled with
one period of active conditions observed at high latitudes at
12/1500 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for 13-14 November as a possible
result of the CME associated with the M1/1n observed 11/1620 UTC.
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to return on 15 November.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Nov to 15 Nov
| Class M | 80% | 70% | 50% |
| Class X | 15% | 10% | 01% |
| Proton | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Nov 178 Predicted 13 Nov-15 Nov 175/170/175 90 Day Mean 12 Nov 178
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov 010/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov 012/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov 020/020-015/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov to 15 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 60% | 40% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 60% | 50% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
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