Viewing archive of Wednesday, 16 October 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Oct 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare of the period was a C7/Sf flare from Region 160 (S20E28) that occurred at 16/0314 UTC. This region has seen steady growth in penumbral coverage today. Region 149 (N14W20) produced only lesser C-class flares during the period. There was slight growth observed in total number of spots today in this region and the beta-gamma magnetic structure became more apparent during the period. An optically uncorrelated long duration C6 x-ray flare occurred at 16/1627 UTC. There were insufficient imagery at the time of this writing to determine whether a CME was associated with this event. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels with an isolated period of minor storm conditions at high latitudes between 16/1800-2100 UTC. The Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite hinted at the possibility of a weak shock passage commencing shortly after 16/1600 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels with periods of active conditions possible throughout the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Oct to 19 Oct
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Oct 183
  Predicted   17 Oct-19 Oct  180/175/175
  90 Day Mean        16 Oct 182
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct  013/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Oct  012/014
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct  010/012-010/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct to 19 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm05%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%

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