Viewing archive of Wednesday, 16 October 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Oct 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare of
the period was a C7/Sf flare from Region 160 (S20E28) that occurred
at 16/0314 UTC. This region has seen steady growth in penumbral
coverage today. Region 149 (N14W20) produced only lesser C-class
flares during the period. There was slight growth observed in total
number of spots today in this region and the beta-gamma magnetic
structure became more apparent during the period. An optically
uncorrelated long duration C6 x-ray flare occurred at 16/1627 UTC.
There were insufficient imagery at the time of this writing to
determine whether a CME was associated with this event. No new
regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels with an isolated
period of minor storm conditions at high latitudes between
16/1800-2100 UTC. The Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite
hinted at the possibility of a weak shock passage commencing shortly
after 16/1600 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels with
periods of active conditions possible throughout the forecast
period.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Oct to 19 Oct
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Oct 183 Predicted 17 Oct-19 Oct 180/175/175 90 Day Mean 16 Oct 182
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct 013/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct 012/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct 010/012-010/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct to 19 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
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