Viewing archive of Monday, 30 September 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Sep 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 273 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Sep 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate. Region 134 (N13W02) produced an M2/1b event at 30/0150 UTC. This region also produced several C-class events with a C2/0f at 30/0422 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep. Another Type II radio sweep was associated with an eruptive prominence at N41W90 which occurred between 30/0702-0732 UTC. A 9 degree filament (S09W11) disappeared between 29/1604 UTC and 30/0518 UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 134 remains capable of producing M-class events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has ranged from quiet to major storm conditions. A shock was observed on the ACE spacecraft at 30/0722 UTC and created a sudden impulse of 22 nt on the Boulder magnetometer at 30/0822 UTC. Another sudden impulse of 11 nt was observed on the Boulder magnetometer at 30/1928 UTC. This activity is believed to be related to the M-class events which occurred on 27 September.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled with isolated active conditions possible on 01 October.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Oct to 03 Oct
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Sep 140
  Predicted   01 Oct-03 Oct  140/140/145
  90 Day Mean        30 Sep 179
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Sep  003/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Sep  020/023
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct  015/015-010/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Oct to 03 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm20%15%15%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%

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