Viewing archive of Monday, 30 September 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Sep 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 273 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Sep 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. Region 134 (N13W02)
produced an M2/1b event at 30/0150 UTC. This region also produced
several C-class events with a C2/0f at 30/0422 UTC with an
associated Type II radio sweep. Another Type II radio sweep was
associated with an eruptive prominence at N41W90 which occurred
between 30/0702-0732 UTC. A 9 degree filament (S09W11) disappeared
between 29/1604 UTC and 30/0518 UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 134 remains capable of producing M-class
events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has ranged from quiet to major storm
conditions. A shock was observed on the ACE spacecraft at 30/0722
UTC and created a sudden impulse of 22 nt on the Boulder
magnetometer at 30/0822 UTC. Another sudden impulse of 11 nt was
observed on the Boulder magnetometer at 30/1928 UTC. This activity
is believed to be related to the M-class events which occurred on 27
September.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled with isolated active
conditions possible on 01 October.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Oct to 03 Oct
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Sep 140 Predicted 01 Oct-03 Oct 140/140/145 90 Day Mean 30 Sep 179
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Sep 003/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Sep 020/023 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct 015/015-010/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Oct to 03 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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