Viewing archive of Saturday, 31 August 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Aug 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 243 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Aug 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 95 (N07E51)
was responsible for the majority of today's flare activity. The
largest was a C9/Sf flare that occurred at 31/1956 UTC.
White-light imagery depicts a steady growth in this groups
intermediate spots and associated penumbral coverage. Analysis
suggest that there may be several delta configurations contained in
this beta-gamma-delta magnetically structured group. Region 87
(S08W47) showed slight growth this period and remains a beta-gamma
magnetic complex. New Regions 97 (N13E36) and 98 (S10E76) were
assigned today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels. Regions 87 and 95 have the potential to produce an
isolated major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly at quiet to unsettled levels.
Isolated active conditions were observed at both middle and high
latitudes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Sep to 03 Sep
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Aug 180 Predicted 01 Sep-03 Sep 180/175/165 90 Day Mean 31 Aug 169
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Aug 007/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Aug 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep 008/010-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Sep to 03 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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