Viewing archive of Sunday, 25 August 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Aug 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 237 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Aug 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 83 (S17W41) produced the largest flare of the day, an M1/Sf at 25/1853 UTC. Other activity consisted of small C-class flares, most of which without corresponding optical reports. Regions 85 (S08W09) and 87 (S07E34) remain the largest sunspot groups currently on the disk but neither produced significant activity during the past day.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. M-class flares remain possible in Regions 83, 85, and 87.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV proton event continues in progress--start 24/0140 UTC, 317 pfu peak 24/0835 UTC, and current flux about 30 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Active conditions are possible the first day in response to recent flare/CME activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end by 27 August.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Aug to 28 Aug
Class M50%40%30%
Class X05%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Aug 179
  Predicted   26 Aug-28 Aug  170/160/155
  90 Day Mean        25 Aug 170
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Aug  003/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Aug  006/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Aug-28 Aug  015/020-012/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Aug to 28 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm20%15%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%

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