Viewing archive of Sunday, 25 August 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Aug 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 237 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Aug 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 83 (S17W41)
produced the largest flare of the day, an M1/Sf at 25/1853 UTC.
Other activity consisted of small C-class flares, most of which
without corresponding optical reports. Regions 85 (S08W09) and 87
(S07E34) remain the largest sunspot groups currently on the disk but
neither produced significant activity during the past day.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. M-class flares remain possible in Regions 83, 85, and
87.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV
proton event continues in progress--start 24/0140 UTC, 317 pfu peak
24/0835 UTC, and current flux about 30 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Active conditions are possible
the first day in response to recent flare/CME activity. The greater
than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end by 27 August.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Aug to 28 Aug
| Class M | 50% | 40% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 90% | 30% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Aug 179 Predicted 26 Aug-28 Aug 170/160/155 90 Day Mean 25 Aug 170
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Aug 003/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Aug 006/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Aug-28 Aug 015/020-012/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Aug to 28 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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