Viewing archive of Tuesday, 20 August 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Aug 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 232 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Aug 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. Region 69 (S03W44)
produced four M-class events during the period, the largest was an
M5/1n at 20/0140 UTC. This region continues to maintain its
beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. An isolated major flare is possible from Region
69.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active with major storm
conditions observed at high latitudes
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are
possible due to the activity over the past several days.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Aug to 23 Aug
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Aug 228 Predicted 21 Aug-23 Aug 225/220/220 90 Day Mean 20 Aug 169
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Aug 020/027 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Aug 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Aug-23 Aug 012/014-012/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Aug to 23 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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