Viewing archive of Tuesday, 20 August 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Aug 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 232 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Aug 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate. Region 69 (S03W44) produced four M-class events during the period, the largest was an M5/1n at 20/0140 UTC. This region continues to maintain its beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. An isolated major flare is possible from Region 69.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active with major storm conditions observed at high latitudes
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are possible due to the activity over the past several days.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Aug to 23 Aug
Class M 75%75%75%
Class X 20%20%20%
Proton15%15%15%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Aug 228
  Predicted    21 Aug-23 Aug  225/220/220
  90 Day Mean        20 Aug 169
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Aug  020/027
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Aug  012/012
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 21 Aug-23 Aug  012/014-012/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Aug to 23 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%25%
Minor storm 15%15%10%
Major-severe storm 05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%30%
Minor storm 20%20%15%
Major-severe storm 10%10%05%

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