Viewing archive of Friday, 2 August 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Aug 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 214 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Aug 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. Region 39 (S15W70)
produced an M1/0F event at 02/1053 UTC. Regions 39, 44 (S21W76),
and 50 (S08W59) all retained a magnetic beta-gamma configuration
today. A new region was numbered today as Region 59 (N14E67).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Several regions on the disk are capable of producing
an isolated major event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm conditions. A
shock was observed on the ACE spacecraft at 01/2220 UTC, resulting
in a sudden impulse of 66 nt at 01/2313 UTC recorded on the Boulder
magnetometer.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Periods of active levels are
possible for August 03-04 from a coronal hole passage.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Aug to 05 Aug
| Class M | 75% | 65% | 55% |
| Class X | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Proton | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Aug 180 Predicted 03 Aug-05 Aug 175/170/165 90 Day Mean 02 Aug 167
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Aug 027/026 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Aug 025/028 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Aug-05 Aug 012/012-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Aug to 05 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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