Viewing archive of Saturday, 20 July 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jul 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 201 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jul 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. An unobserved M1 event was
in progress at the very end -- 2100 UTC -- of the period, with an
associated Type II sweep. Earlier a C9/1n at 1242UTC from Region 30
(N18W63) occurred. Region 30 has showed some decay in white light
during the period. Region 36 (S07E11) developed in all observables,
growing to 980 millionths in white light and exhibiting a weak delta
in the leader spot.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Regions 30 and 36 are good candidates for an isolated
M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. High speed
(700 - 900 km/s) solar wind fueled the activity, but no transients
were seen in the plasma data. The IMF had a very small northward
component most of the day, diminishing the impact of the high radial
speed on the magnetosphere. The small proton event at greater than
10 MeV was ended at 19/1535 UTC. The peak flux was 13 pfu at 19/1515
UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled levels throughout the interval.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jul to 23 Jul
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Jul 185 Predicted 21 Jul-23 Jul 185/185/180 90 Day Mean 20 Jul 160
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jul 009/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jul 015/017 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jul-23 Jul 010/015-010/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jul to 23 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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