Viewing archive of Thursday, 11 July 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jul 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 192 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity was at high levels. Region 30 (N19E49)
produced a major flare during the period, an impulsive M5/2b flare
occurred at 11/1451 UTC as well as an impulsive M1 x-ray flare at
11/1419 UTC. Multiple C-class flares from this region were also
observed today. This region is by far the most complex region seen
on the visible disk. A beta-gamma-delta magnetic complex, showing
steady penumbral growth. Region 19 (S19W83) has been in slow decay
as it begins to transit the west limb. The remaining spotted
regions have been quiescent or in slow decay. New Region 31
(N10E65) was assigned today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels. Region 30 remains complex enough to produce an
isolated major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to isolated
unsettled levels at all latitudes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels until day two of the
period, where a favorably positioned coronal hole may produce active
conditions. Day three should see a return to quiet to unsettled
conditions.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jul to 14 Jul
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jul 136 Predicted 12 Jul-14 Jul 135/135/140 90 Day Mean 11 Jul 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul 007/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jul 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul 008/008-015/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul to 14 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
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