Viewing archive of Monday, 1 July 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jul 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 182 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jul 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Minor C-class flares were observed throughout the period. Region 19 (S18E50) now exceeds 600 millionths of white light area with a magnetic delta configuration. Despite its obvious complexity, this region was relatively quiet. Region 17 (S19W37) is in a slow growth phase and is developing some mixing. Another impressive coronal mass ejection was observed off the SE limb today associated with a prominence eruption at 01/1300Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Regions 17 and 19 both have potential for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Isolated minor storm periods were observed at high latitudes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to active levels with isolated minor storm conditions at high latitudes. These disturbed conditions are likely to subside by day three.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jul to 04 Jul
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Jul 147
  Predicted   02 Jul-04 Jul  145/145/145
  90 Day Mean        01 Jul 172
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jun  012/016
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Jul  015/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Jul-04 Jul  012/012-010/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jul to 04 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%20%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%30%20%
Minor storm20%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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