Viewing archive of Friday, 24 May 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 May 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 144 Issued at 2200Z on 24 May 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region 9963 (N15E23) produced an impulsive M1/Sf flare at 24/0646 UTC and a few C-class flares. There were no significant changes noted in this region. An optically uncorrelated Type II radio sweep occurred at 24/0322 UTC. Region 9957 (N11W32) continued to gradually decay, but remained moderately complex. Region 9960 (N14W09) showed no significant changes during the period, but retained a delta magnetic configuration within its trailer spots. Region 9961 (S22E09) appeared to be in a decay phase with a weakened delta magnetic configuration within its intermediate spots. New Region 9968 (S13E26) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Isolated M-class flares are possible from Regions 9957, 9960, and 9961. There is also a slight chance for a major flare during the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 22/1755 UTC ended at 24/1455 UTC. The maximum flux for this event was 820 pfu at 23/1055 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to active levels. Active periods are possible during 25 May due to recurrent coronal hole effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected during the rest of the period. There is a slight chance for a proton event during the period.
III. Event Probabilities 25 May to 27 May
Class M 50%50%50%
Class X 10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 May 189
  Predicted    25 May-27 May  180/180/180
  90 Day Mean        24 May 184
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 May  052/054
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 May  006/012
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 25 May-27 May  015/015-010/008-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 May to 27 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%25%25%
Minor storm 20%10%10%
Major-severe storm 05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%30%30%
Minor storm 20%15%15%
Major-severe storm 05%01%01%

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