Viewing archive of Thursday, 21 March 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Mar 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 080 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Mar 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 9866
(S09W84) produced a C-class flare and a few bright surges as it
began to cross the west limb. Regions 9870 (S20W73), 9871 (S18W32)
and 9873 (S18W67) each produced C-class subflares, but were
otherwise unremarkable. New Regions 9879 (N15W50) and 9880 (N08E35)
were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. There is a fair chance for an isolated,
low-level M-class flare during the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was enhanced
in the wake of yesterday's proton event, but gradually decreased
toward background levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
forecast to be at unsettled to active levels on 22 March in response
to a partial-halo CME observed on 19 March. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected during the rest of the period. There is a
slight chance for a proton flare early in the period from Region
9866 as it rotates out of view.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Mar to 24 Mar
| Class M | 50% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Mar 174 Predicted 22 Mar-24 Mar 170/165/165 90 Day Mean 21 Mar 213
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Mar 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Mar 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Mar-24 Mar 015/015-012/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Mar to 24 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
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