Viewing archive of Thursday, 21 March 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Mar 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 080 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Mar 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 9866 (S09W84) produced a C-class flare and a few bright surges as it began to cross the west limb. Regions 9870 (S20W73), 9871 (S18W32) and 9873 (S18W67) each produced C-class subflares, but were otherwise unremarkable. New Regions 9879 (N15W50) and 9880 (N08E35) were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. There is a fair chance for an isolated, low-level M-class flare during the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was enhanced in the wake of yesterday's proton event, but gradually decreased toward background levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is forecast to be at unsettled to active levels on 22 March in response to a partial-halo CME observed on 19 March. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected during the rest of the period. There is a slight chance for a proton flare early in the period from Region 9866 as it rotates out of view.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Mar to 24 Mar
Class M 50%40%40%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton10%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Mar 174
  Predicted    22 Mar-24 Mar  170/165/165
  90 Day Mean        21 Mar 213
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Mar  007/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Mar  006/008
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 22 Mar-24 Mar  015/015-012/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Mar to 24 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%20%
Minor storm 20%15%10%
Major-severe storm 10%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%30%25%
Minor storm 25%20%15%
Major-severe storm 15%10%05%

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