Viewing archive of Saturday, 2 March 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Mar 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 061 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Mar 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 9845 (N18W18) produced
the largest flare of the period, a C4/Sf at 02/2016 UTC. Earlier,
an impressive prominence erupted off the southeast limb, near
S43E90, beginning at about 02/1345 UTC. This event was visible in
SOHO/EIT and H-alpha imagery, and a subsequent CME was seen in LASCO
imagery, though not appearing earth-directed. A slight x-ray
enhancement accompanied this event, and persisted through the
remainder of the period. New Region 9853 (S24E69) was numbered
today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low. A chance for isolated M-class activity exists
for Region 9845.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet, with some isolated unsettled
periods during 02/1500-2100 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled through day one. Onset of high
speed stream effects from a large, positive-polarity coronal hole
are expected to develop during day two, and persist for the
remainder of the forecast period, with active conditions likely and
isolated minor storm periods at higher latitudes possible.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Mar to 05 Mar
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Mar 191 Predicted 03 Mar-05 Mar 185/185/180 90 Day Mean 02 Mar 222
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Mar 009/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Mar 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Mar-05 Mar 007/008-010/010-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Mar to 05 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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