Viewing archive of Friday, 22 February 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Feb 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 053 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Feb 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 9830 (S19W34)
produced an M4/2n at 22/0010Z with minor centimetric bursts. This
region continues to slowly decay, but maintains moderate magnetic
complexity with a weak delta configuration. The vigorous activity
noted on the NW limb over the past few days is waning now, but is
the likely source of the C5 X-ray flare at 22/0630Z. Region 9835
(S08W87) appeared to develop some complexity over the past 36
hours and is quite active as it rotates around the west limb. New
Regions 9841 (S21W20), 9842 (S18E03), and 9843 (S26E58), were
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Though in decay, Region 9830 still has potential to
produce C and M-class flares with the slight chance of a major
flare. Isolated C-class flares may continue from active regions near
the west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with isolated unsettled
periods.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at mostly quiet to unsettled levels. Active
periods are possible on day one due to the expected CME passage
associated with the M5/1n flare that occurred on 20/0612Z.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Feb to 25 Feb
| Class M | 60% | 55% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Feb 192 Predicted 23 Feb-25 Feb 190/190/185 90 Day Mean 22 Feb 223
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Feb 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Feb 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb 015/020-010/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Feb to 25 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
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