Viewing archive of Sunday, 17 February 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Feb 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 048 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 9830 (S18E31) was the most active of the visible regions. It produced occasional subflares as it grew at a gradual pace with increased sunspot area and magnetic complexity. A magnetic delta configuration may have developed within its leader spots. Region 9825 (N12W35) continued to gradually decay and simplify. The remaining active regions were unremarkable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. There is a chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 9830.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. Activity increased to unsettled to active levels during 17/0300 - 0900 UTC following a sudden impulse at 17/0257 UTC (13 nT, as measured by the Boulder USGS magnetometer). Field activity decreased to quiet to unsettled levels after 17/0900 UTC. This brief increase in activity appeared to be the result of a weak CME passage.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Feb to 20 Feb
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Feb 197
  Predicted   18 Feb-20 Feb  195/195/190
  90 Day Mean        17 Feb 222
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb  002/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Feb  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb  010/010-010/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb to 20 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%25%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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