Viewing archive of Tuesday, 12 February 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Feb 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 043 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity was low. There were several C-class events during the period. The largest of these was an C5/1f long duration flare at 12/1442 UTC from Region 9825 (N13E29). This region continues to develop in area and magnetic complexity and is currently an Eai beta-gamma group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9825 has the potential to produce an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit were enhanced to moderate levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Feb to 15 Feb
Class M 50%50%50%
Class X 10%10%10%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Feb 208
  Predicted    13 Feb-15 Feb  215/215/215
  90 Day Mean        12 Feb 222
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb  008/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Feb  008/008
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb  005/005-005/005-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb to 15 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%25%
Minor storm 05%05%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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