Viewing archive of Friday, 8 February 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Feb 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 039 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. The largest event
was an optically uncorrelated C4.0 flare at 08/1043 UTC. Region
9810 (N11W14) has shown some growth in spot count and extent. Two
new regions were numbered today: Region 9821 (S14E16) and Region
9822 (N18E69). Region 9822 appeared as a 150 millionths, 9 spots,
Dao class group and suggests a potentially active region.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
The indication of activity on the northeast limb may increase flare
potential later in the forecast period as this area rotates onto the
disc.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Greater than
2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit were enhanced to moderate
levels with a peak value of 985 pfu at 08/1730 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Greater than 2 MeV
electrons at geosynchronous orbit are expected to be enhanced to
moderate levels.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Feb to 11 Feb
| Class M | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Feb 192 Predicted 09 Feb-11 Feb 185/180/175 90 Day Mean 08 Feb 223
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb 010/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Feb 012/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb 010/010-008/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb to 11 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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