Viewing archive of Friday, 8 February 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Feb 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 039 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. The largest event was an optically uncorrelated C4.0 flare at 08/1043 UTC. Region 9810 (N11W14) has shown some growth in spot count and extent. Two new regions were numbered today: Region 9821 (S14E16) and Region 9822 (N18E69). Region 9822 appeared as a 150 millionths, 9 spots, Dao class group and suggests a potentially active region.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. The indication of activity on the northeast limb may increase flare potential later in the forecast period as this area rotates onto the disc.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit were enhanced to moderate levels with a peak value of 985 pfu at 08/1730 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit are expected to be enhanced to moderate levels.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Feb to 11 Feb
Class M30%25%25%
Class X05%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Feb 192
  Predicted   09 Feb-11 Feb  185/180/175
  90 Day Mean        08 Feb 223
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb  010/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Feb  012/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb  010/010-008/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb to 11 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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