Viewing archive of Sunday, 3 February 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Feb 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 034 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Feb 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. C4/Sf flares occurred in Region 9807 (S27E26) at 03/0553 UTC and in Region 9802 (S14W31) at 03/1519 UTC, these being the largest flares for the period. Region 9807 has shown some decay since yesterday in spot complex. The beta-gamma-delta magnetic structure in Region 9802 remains intact. Region 9800 had no optically correlated flares today and continues to show decay in both umbral coverage and magnetic complexity. New Regions 9813 (S24W13), 9814 (N07E15), and 9815 (N12E70) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at predominantly low to moderate levels. A slight chance for major flare activity is possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled through days one and two of the forecast period. Day three may see active levels with possible minor storm conditions due to the onset of a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Feb to 06 Feb
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Feb 233
  Predicted   04 Feb-06 Feb  235/230/225
  90 Day Mean        03 Feb 225
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Feb  014/018
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Feb  005/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Feb-06 Feb  005/005-005/005-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Feb to 06 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%25%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%30%
Minor storm05%05%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%

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