Viewing archive of Thursday, 31 January 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jan 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 031 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. An M3.6 flare
occurred at 31/1444 UTC from Region 9787 (S07 on the west limb).
Region 9800 (N07W18) and Region 9802 (S16E09) produced minor C-class
flares. Region 9802 continues to grow and now has an
Ekc/Beta-gamma-delta class, area of 650 millionths, 49 spots, and a
13 degree extent. Region 9800 has shown little change in the last
24 hours. Two new Regions were numbered today: Region 9808
(N15E54) and Region 9809 (S06E68).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 9800 and Region 9802 have the
potential for producing major events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Feb to 03 Feb
| Class M | 65% | 65% | 60% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Jan 243 Predicted 01 Feb-03 Feb 240/240/235 90 Day Mean 31 Jan 225
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan 001/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jan 006/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb to 03 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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