Viewing archive of Thursday, 31 January 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jan 31 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 031 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. An M3.6 flare occurred at 31/1444 UTC from Region 9787 (S07 on the west limb). Region 9800 (N07W18) and Region 9802 (S16E09) produced minor C-class flares. Region 9802 continues to grow and now has an Ekc/Beta-gamma-delta class, area of 650 millionths, 49 spots, and a 13 degree extent. Region 9800 has shown little change in the last 24 hours. Two new Regions were numbered today: Region 9808 (N15E54) and Region 9809 (S06E68).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 9800 and Region 9802 have the potential for producing major events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Feb to 03 Feb
Class M65%65%60%
Class X15%15%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       31 Jan 243
  Predicted   01 Feb-03 Feb  240/240/235
  90 Day Mean        31 Jan 225
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan  001/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 31 Jan  006/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb to 03 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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