Viewing archive of Friday, 25 January 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jan 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 025 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jan 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 9794 (N13W03) produced the largest flare of the past day, a C6/Sn at 25/0225 UTC. Region 9787 (S09W21) remains the largest sunspot group on the visible disk but is not particularly complex and has not produced major activity. New Regions 9800 (N07E63) and 9801 (S03E77) rotated into view.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. C-level activity is expected to continue and there is a small chance of an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Jan to 28 Jan
Class M 30%30%30%
Class X 01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Jan 235
  Predicted    26 Jan-28 Jan  240/245/250
  90 Day Mean        25 Jan 223
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jan  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Jan  006/006
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 26 Jan-28 Jan  008/008-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jan to 28 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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