Viewing archive of Monday, 21 January 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jan 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 021 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jan 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Activity consisted of several minor C-class flares from three separate regions. Region 9788 (N18E13) produced the largest flare of the period, a C3/Sf flare at 21/0329 UTC. This region continues to show growth in both spot coverage and magnetic complexity. Region 9791 (S03W33) also continues to show rapid growth and produced a minor C-class flare late in the period. Region 9785 (N10W85) produced a small C-class flare early in the period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. A chance for an isolated low-level M-class flare remains possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. High latitudes may experience isolated active conditions due to coronal hole high speed stream effects.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jan to 24 Jan
Class M 45%50%50%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Jan 225
  Predicted    22 Jan-24 Jan  230/235/235
  90 Day Mean        21 Jan 223
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jan  006/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Jan  008/008
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan  006/008-006/008-006/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jan to 24 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm 01%01%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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