Viewing archive of Friday, 18 January 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jan 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 018 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity remained at low levels. Isolated C-class X-ray flares occurred. There were two sunspot groups of note: Region 9782 (N06W22) and Region 9786 (S26W19). Region 9782 underwent minor changes with a small decrease in area, but continued to show a mix of polarities within its southern leader spots. Region 9786 appeared to be in a gradual growth phase, but was simply structured. The remaining regions were unremarkable. New Region 9788 (N16E53) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be predominately low. However, there will be a small chance for an isolated low-level M-class flare from Region 9782.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit decreased to normal to moderate levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels. However, there will be a chance for brief active levels on 20 - 21 January due to coronal hole effects. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jan to 21 Jan
Class M 40%40%40%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Jan 211
  Predicted    19 Jan-21 Jan  215/220/225
  90 Day Mean        18 Jan 224
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Jan  007/006
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan  008/008-012/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan to 21 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%25%20%
Minor storm 05%15%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%30%30%
Minor storm 05%20%15%
Major-severe storm 01%05%05%

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