Viewing archive of Friday, 18 January 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jan 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 018 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity remained at low levels. Isolated C-class
X-ray flares occurred. There were two sunspot groups of note: Region
9782 (N06W22) and Region 9786 (S26W19). Region 9782 underwent minor
changes with a small decrease in area, but continued to show a mix
of polarities within its southern leader spots. Region 9786 appeared
to be in a gradual growth phase, but was simply structured. The
remaining regions were unremarkable. New Region 9788 (N16E53) was
numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
predominately low. However, there will be a small chance for an
isolated low-level M-class flare from Region 9782.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit decreased
to normal to moderate levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels. However, there will
be a chance for brief active levels on 20 - 21 January due to
coronal hole effects. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is
expected to remain at normal to moderate levels.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jan to 21 Jan
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Jan 211 Predicted 19 Jan-21 Jan 215/220/225 90 Day Mean 18 Jan 224
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jan 007/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan 008/008-012/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan to 21 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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