Viewing archive of Sunday, 13 January 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jan 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 013 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate. Region 9773 (N16W56) produced an M1/1n flare at 0310 UTC and continues to be the largest region on the disk. Region 9773 continues to show a magnetic delta configuration in the middle of the group. Region 9775 (S05W43) produced an M2/Sf at 1946 UTC and currently consists of a relatively large number of spots in a complicated, beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region 9778 (S17E08) appears to be growing slowly, and there may be a small delta configuration forming in the group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be mostly moderate. There continues to be a slight chance for a major flare or proton producing flare, with Region 9773 being the most likely source.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began 10/2045 UTC ended today at 13/1425 UTC. The peak flux was 91 PFU at 11/0530 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes attained high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly unsettled for the next 24 hours. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected for the second and third days.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jan to 16 Jan
Class M 75%75%75%
Class X 20%20%20%
Proton20%20%20%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Jan 241
  Predicted    14 Jan-16 Jan  235/235/240
  90 Day Mean        13 Jan 224
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan  012/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Jan  010/012
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan  012/010-007/008-007/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan to 16 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm 15%10%10%
Major-severe storm 05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm 15%10%10%
Major-severe storm 05%01%01%

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