Viewing archive of Sunday, 13 January 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jan 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 013 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. Region 9773 (N16W56)
produced an M1/1n flare at 0310 UTC and continues to be the largest
region on the disk. Region 9773 continues to show a magnetic delta
configuration in the middle of the group. Region 9775 (S05W43)
produced an M2/Sf at 1946 UTC and currently consists of a relatively
large number of spots in a complicated, beta-gamma magnetic
configuration. Region 9778 (S17E08) appears to be growing slowly,
and there may be a small delta configuration forming in the group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly moderate. There continues to be a slight chance for a major
flare or proton producing flare, with Region 9773 being the most
likely source.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV
proton event that began 10/2045 UTC ended today at 13/1425 UTC. The
peak flux was 91 PFU at 11/0530 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron
fluxes attained high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly unsettled for the next 24 hours. Quiet
to unsettled levels are expected for the second and third days.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jan to 16 Jan
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jan 241 Predicted 14 Jan-16 Jan 235/235/240 90 Day Mean 13 Jan 224
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan 012/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jan 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan 012/010-007/008-007/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan to 16 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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