Viewing archive of Thursday, 10 January 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jan 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 010 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 9773 (N14W17) belied its ominous appearance in white light and h-alpha by producing just C-class events in the past 24 hours. A C7/Sf at 1018 UTC was the largest event, although the x-ray background from GOES was enhanced throughout the day. The region measures more than 500 millionths in white light, and retains a significant degree of magnetic complexity. Elsewhere, Region 9778 (S17E45) grew in most parameters and produced occasional subflares.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Region 9773 is capable of M class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field varied from quiet to minor storm levels. A high speed solar wind stream began to impact the magnetosphere early in the period, with solar wind speeds increasing from 350 km/s to more than 600 km/s. In addition, there have been intervals where the interplanetary magnetic field has been near 20 nT southward, further fueling the disturbance. An enhancement in the greater than 10 MeV protons at GOES began around 0700 UTC. The flux attained event level (10 pfu at greater than 10 MeV) at 2045 UTC. This increase may be associated with east limb activity that occurred late on January 8.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels. The current disturbance should persist for the next 24-48 hours. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is likely to slowly decay.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Jan to 13 Jan
Class M75%75%75%
Class X25%25%25%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Jan 225
  Predicted   11 Jan-13 Jan  230/235/240
  90 Day Mean        10 Jan 223
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan  002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Jan  015/023
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan  020/030-015/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan to 13 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm50%40%40%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%

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