Viewing archive of Tuesday, 25 December 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Dec 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 359 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Dec 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 9754 (S09E38) was the most active area producing two M1 flares this past day. This sunspot group is a growing E-type region developing increased magnetic complexity. Region 9742 (N12W57) remains the largest sunspot group on the disk with area in excess of 1000 millionths. However this region does not appear to have significant magnetic complexity and has not produced major activity. New Region 9755 (S05E64) rotated onto the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. M-class flares are possible in Regions 9742, 9748, and 9754.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The high-speed coronal hole stream apparent yesterday has passed and solar wind parameters have returned to nominal values.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Dec to 28 Dec
Class M 75%75%75%
Class X 10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Dec 259
  Predicted    26 Dec-28 Dec  260/260/255
  90 Day Mean        25 Dec 217
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Dec  013/019
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Dec  010/010
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 26 Dec-28 Dec  010/010-008/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Dec to 28 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm 10%10%10%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%

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