Viewing archive of Monday, 10 December 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Dec 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 344 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Dec 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 9727 (S21W24) produced today's largest event, a C8/Sf at 0938 UTC. The region produced additional C-class subflares during the period. The group has shown an increase in area of about 35%. The growth primarily consisted of emerging positive polarity flux just north of the dominant negative leader spots. The merging of these opposite polarities across an east west inversion line has led to the formation of a strong delta configuration in the region. Region 9733 (N14E44) is the other region of note on the disk: the group has more clearly rotated into view with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration and produced a couple C-class subflares during the day. A seventeen degree filament near N39E24 disappeared sometime between 0116 UTC and 0545 UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be mostly moderate for the next three days. There is a small chance, however, for a major flare or a proton producing flare from Region 9727, especially if magnetic flux continues to emerge.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled during the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Dec to 13 Dec
Class M80%80%80%
Class X20%20%20%
Proton20%20%20%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Dec 219
  Predicted   11 Dec-13 Dec  215/215/210
  90 Day Mean        10 Dec 219
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Dec  001/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Dec  005/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Dec-13 Dec  010/008-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Dec to 13 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%25%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

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