Viewing archive of Thursday, 15 November 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Nov 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Nov 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 9690 (S17W60)
produced an M1/1f at 14/2211Z with minor centimetric bursts. Other
minor C-class events were observed in this region which continues to
gradually decay. Minor C-class flares were also observed in
developing Regions 9703 (N23W01), and 9704 (S18E56). Region 9697
(N13E20) is in a slow growth phase and now exceeds 300 millionths of
white light area coverage. Some plage fluctuations were observed,
but no significant magnetic complexity exist at this time.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at moderate levels. Region 9690 is the best source for an isolated
M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Quiet conditions were
predominant until a small sudden impulse (SI) of 6 nT was observed
on the Boulder magnetometer at 15/1509Z. Unsettled to active
conditions prevailed since the SI.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active
periods at mostly higher latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Nov to 18 Nov
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 40% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Nov 207 Predicted 16 Nov-18 Nov 205/205/195 90 Day Mean 15 Nov 216
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Nov 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Nov 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov 010/010-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Nov to 18 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
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