Viewing archive of Thursday, 15 November 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Nov 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Nov 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 9690 (S17W60) produced an M1/1f at 14/2211Z with minor centimetric bursts. Other minor C-class events were observed in this region which continues to gradually decay. Minor C-class flares were also observed in developing Regions 9703 (N23W01), and 9704 (S18E56). Region 9697 (N13E20) is in a slow growth phase and now exceeds 300 millionths of white light area coverage. Some plage fluctuations were observed, but no significant magnetic complexity exist at this time.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at moderate levels. Region 9690 is the best source for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Quiet conditions were predominant until a small sudden impulse (SI) of 6 nT was observed on the Boulder magnetometer at 15/1509Z. Unsettled to active conditions prevailed since the SI.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods at mostly higher latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Nov to 18 Nov
Class M50%50%40%
Class X15%15%05%
Proton10%10%05%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Nov 207
  Predicted   16 Nov-18 Nov  205/205/195
  90 Day Mean        15 Nov 216
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Nov  003/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Nov  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov  010/010-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Nov to 18 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%20%15%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%25%20%
Minor storm20%10%05%
Major-severe storm10%01%01%

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